My tech predictions for 2008

I know what you're thinking: this guy's not to swift with his maths, but work with me for a minute here. Everyone is putting out their predictions for 2007. Let's face it, 2007 is just ten days away now, so it's easy to do. We could have all written 'my predicitions for July' in June, and it would have the same impact.

Sys-con and RWW put out their lists, and overall it seemed like tame stuff. Ajax is hyped/not hyped. Open-sourcing Java is good/not good. Rinse and repeat.

The best of the list was Bob Zurek's predictions, chock full of intelligent wikis and predictive networks. Mmm, tasty.

Without any more pretense, here are my predictions for 2008:

1. AJAX begins its downward spiral as entire communities move to web on the mobile phone and all that Javascript breaks in the browser. Huge disenchantment follows, and the simplicity folks win this battle with bare-bones HTML+CSS design.
2. The final word on Ruby is said, in the form of a performance benchmark which validates Ruby's place in the web enterprise. This will shut up naysayers, and be a rallying cry for the Ruby community at-large. This will also be the nail in the coffin for Sun, see number 3.
3. Open-sourcing Java does nothing for Sun as a company as its market share is eaten alive by C# on one side and by Python/Ruby on the other. JDK7 is a fine product, but will be remembered much like IBM's OS/2, which failed as a 'technically superior, but marketed inferior' product. Expect a buyout as its routers are less and less popular, especially with the rise of the Chinese Internet (see number 6).
4. Outsourcing comes back to the US after the housing bubble finally takes 18 months to deflate and the cost of living in the US recedes. A major Indian or Russian industry opens up shop in the US and attracts thousands of applicants, like Wal-Mart opening up in middle America. Indian players could include Tata, while Russian players could be Verysell or Luxoft.
5. Microsoft finally figures out how to make search work and Google's greatest fear is realized; the contents of search between Yahoo, MSFT and Google are not only similar but indistinguishable. Google, having known this fear since 2005, will have created another revenue stream (probably phones or OS) so that it can remain a contender.
6. And the money shot: China unveils its own Internet (either v6 or v10) in the wake of the Beijing Olympics, dwarfing the efforts by the US and ICANN to retain control of the world network. This, together with lack of Net Neutrality, will divide and conquer the Internet and create online haves and have-nots, just like the real world. Sad but true.